At the end of the NFL season a few years back a 27 yr. old QB finished his season throwing for 3,692 yds, 28 td's, 14 int's, and 60.8% comp.
Last year Alex Smith, 27 yrs. old, finished his season with 3,144 yds, 17 td's, 5 int's, and 61.3% comp.
The QB from a few years ago had the #2 ranked DEF in the league. Smith, last year, had the #2 ranked DEF in the league.
That QB from a few years ago compiled career stats of; 13,925 yds, 1,243 comp, 2,018 att, 61.6% comp, 97 td's, and 52 int's by the age of 27 yrs. old.
Alex Smith has a career line of; 12,543 yds, 1,137 comp, 1,959 att, 58.0% comp, 68 td's, and 58 int's at the age of 27.
The QB from a few years ago has some better numbers, but, how much better? What if I told you that he was never injured by the age of 27? Smith was twice, including all of '08. What if I threw in that he had 1 head coach all 4 years he started and 1 offensive system every year? You can't count on your hands how many coaches and systems Smith went through leading up to 27 yrs. old. What if I told you that that QB from a few years ago played for a team that had a defense rank #6, #17, #1 and #2 in his years leading up to 27? Smith played for teams that ranked #30, #32, #20, #4, #16 and #2 on defense.
The QB from a few years ago was labeled a "Game Manager." It was constantly debated on sports shows across the nation that the QB from a few years ago was a product of the system. Former players, NFL hosts, and TV analysts were always saying that he just needed to "mange the game" and the team could win Super Bowls. And they did just that. The QB from a few years ago is Tom Brady. He won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years and had mediocre stats, at best. It was consistent coaching, great game planning, and team managing that lead New England to those 3 Super Bowls, not an "elite" QB in Tom Brady. Don't get me wrong, Brady was a HUGE part in them winning, but his numbers were pedestrian. He had never compiled a 4,000 yd season, he was not throwing for 300 yds every game. It wasn't until after Brady was 27 yrs old (and not even really until he was 30) that he blossomed into what we've labeled an "elite" quarterback.
After the resurgence of the 49ers last season, I started to hear "Game Manager" a lot again when people talked about Alex Smith. It bothered me because I couldn't quite put my finger on it but I knew I heard this before, and it had been relatively recent. After reading/hearing for the billionth time about the "Game Manager" leading the 49ers I realized that it was Brady who had gone through that same label just years before. Do you remember that? I know it's hard to recall now, especially after Brady has put up record numbers over the past few years, but it is true, he was once considered a "Game Manager" who was lucky to be in the situation he was in.
So what does all this mean? Well, technically, nothing really. I mean, let's face it, these are two different guys, coming from two very different situations; Smith was drafted #1 over-all, which put mounds of pressure on him to perform from day 1, while Brady was selected in the 6th round of the draft, where coaches determine if you even make the team. There was no pressure for Brady who sat and watched from the sidelines his whole first year in the NFL. Brady was then coddled with a stout defense from the first game he started, a solid offensive system and wonderful flock of skilled position players and offensive line.
But, what I'm tired of hearing is; if Smith was going to be successful it would've happened already. Not only is Brady proof that that is a wrong statement, he makes that statement look down-right silly. From the age of 28 and on Brady has averaged numbers of; 4,330 yds, 34 td's and 11 int's a season. That is the definition of elite (I did not count '08 as he was lost for the year in the first half of the first game). There is no doubt that with the right coaching, stability of offensive game plan, and the right weapons that a former #1 over-all pick can't turn his career around. Let's not forget that Smith is only 28 this year. Again, 28 years old was the same year Tom Brady went from "Game Manager" to elite QB.
Don't forget either that Brady got a new stable of players in '07 when he really turned the corner and set a record of 50 td's in one season. 50 touchdown's! Who helped him get there? Oh, well, they picked up Randy Moss, so you know... wait didn't the 49ers just pick up Randy Moss? ok, ok, I don't think Moss is going to put up a slash line of 98 rec, 1,493 yds, and 23 td's again. But, my point is that the Niners just reloaded for Smith and now have a WR core that consists of Crabtree, Moss, Manningham, Ginn Jr, Williams, and #1 pick Jenkins. That unit is now one of the deepest in the league, not the best, but one of the deepest for sure.
My point here is to watch Smith this year before you judge him. See how he developes. Smith has a great coaching staff that believes in him, whether they pursued Manning or not. He has an offensive system that is still in place from last year, which he's never been able to claim before. He has a top ranked Defense entering the year, a solid all-pro offensive line protecting his blind side, and deep stable of WR's and RB's. Kind of sounds like the same situation someone else was in not too long ago, right?
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