Hope in 2015

In 2015 the 49ers will have big changes to a core group of players that are keys to their team. There are 3 big pending free-agents QB Colin Kaepernick, WR Michael Crabtree and OG Mike Iupati. There is a school of thought that the 49ers will be able to make some simple cuts and afford 2 of the 3 big free agents available and still have room to sign Aldon Smith for 2016. But, unfortunately, some common sense tells 49ers fan's that there is more to consider when the 2015 off-season arrives.

First, the 49ers like to extend their free-agents before they reach free agency. Yes, the 49ers have resigned players in recent years that reached free-agency (Carlos Rogers, Anquan Boldin) but those were players they picked up on one year deals and had no reason to extend until there was an established value to the team. There are some outliers like Ahmad Brooks but he was coming off being a new starter. Most of the pending free-agents for the 49ers have been extended before they actually reached free-agency in recent years (Tramaine Brock, Ian Williams, Anthony Davis, Justin Smith, Joe Staley, Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, etc., get the point?) The 49ers plan ahead and like to tie up "their guys" so that they don't have to get into bidding wars. Case in point when you consider Goldson, Whitner, Brown, Rogers (this off season), Walker, etc. So when we look at the 2015 free agent class and see that the 49ers are wanting to resign Colin Kaepernick before the season starts we can logically deduce that he is one of "their guys." But their is no indication out of the 49ers headquarters that they are planning to extend Crabtree or Iupati. With this formula in mind we have our first clue that those players may not be "their guy."

Second, the 49ers have other players that are free agents in 2015. You can't just assume that all available money is going to be divvied up between Kaepernick, Crabtree and Iupati. You also must consider players like Chris Culliver, Glen Dorsey, Eric Wright, Kendall Hunter, hell as of right now they have more than 20 players scheduled to be free agents! That's not including a guy like Frank Gore, who I'm assuming will be gently shown the door, and extensions for players like Alex Boone (who is severely underpaid)!  It's laughable to not consider all these players when talking about the 2015 free agent class, the 49ers will have to spend money on many players to make sure they can fill out their roster with the good depth they've built over the past few years.

Third, the 49ers want to resign Colin Kaepernick and Aldon Smith first, which means they will not jeopardize resigning Smith for 2016 by resigning Crabtree or Iuptai to contracts in 2015 that may hinder that move. Plus with the way the 49ers usually work on extensions they will probably take care of Aldon Smith before the 2015 season because... you guessed it, they don't like "their guys" to reach free agency. Right now they want the Miami case to end (or at least have enough distance) so they can get "their guy" Kaepernick extended, then see how it plays out with "their guy" Smith on and off the field over the next year before extending him too (probably in 2015).

You can't have tunnel vision when talking about the 2015 free-agent class without taking all the variables into account, not only for 2015 but for 2016 and beyond too, that's how business works. It's not rocket science if you pay attention to how they conduct their business there's a specific way they do things. The 49ers will resign Kaepernick and Smith to extensions, barring that everything plays out well for them on and off the field (don't even get me started on the rumor that the 49ers might cut Smith). As for Crabtree and Iupati, can they be resigned? Well, yes, of course they can but I doubt they will. Crabtree and his agent will approach the table as if Crabtree is a top talent at WR and they'll want to get paid accordingly even though injuries and stats won't match their demands (I cringe thinking about his rookie year contract drama). And Iupati and his agent will approach the table as if he's the best guard in the league because he essentially is. If one of these guys decides to take less money to stay with the team then I could see it working out, but I believe both these guys will want top dollar and they'll find teams that will give them just that. Don't forget that the 49ers will be willing to pay what it takes to resign Kaepernick and Smith, but that rule will not be used when considering Crabtree and Iupati. The take-away is that 49ers fan's should hope for the best but be weary of those that say the best case scenario is a probable outcome.